facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast blog search brokercheck brokercheck

The Best of What They Said and I Read Week Ending 11/3/2019

Short excerpts from articles I found interesting.   I may not agree with the author and the following material is not intended as investment advice

Barron’s – November 1, 2019 – The Best Stock Market Ever Heads Into Stocks’s Best Time of the Year -  Randall W. Forsyth

  •  “…Fall back?...For the stock market, it’s more about springing forward as it enters what’s historically the best six months of the year, with the major averages already at or close to historic highs. And that’s with a trade war hitting global commerce and an impeachment drama hanging over the nation’s capital.”

  • “…The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite closed at records on Friday, up 1.5% and 1.7% this past week, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% but landed 0.04% short of its record. Looking at the performance through the year’s first 10 months, the S&P posted a total return (including dividends) of 23.16%; the Nasdaq, 26.06%; and the Dow, 18.19%. The year-to-date numbers are flattered by timing because the risk markets (equity and speculative-grade debt) bottomed around the end of 2018. On a 12-month basis, the S&P’s return is substantially lower, but still impressive, at 14.22%, along with the Nasdaq’s 14.77% and the Dow’s 10.32%.”

  • “…If there’s a fly in the ointment (and there always is), it’s that so much of the market’s gains and aggregate value have been concentrated in megacap technology stocks, such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Google parent Alphabet…That said, breadth—the number of advancing stocks versus decliners—on the New York Stock Exchange also is at a peak, indicating relatively broad participation in the major indexes’ march to record highs.”

U.S. Global Investors - Investor Alert – November 1, 2019 – Frank Holmes 

  • “…Federal Reserve officials reduced interest rates by a quarter of a percent for the third time this year and signaled a pause in further cuts unless the economic outlook changes materially…“We believe monetary policy is in a good place,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference following the decision. “We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

  • “…China's factory output slipped to its lowest level in eight months as Trump's trade-war malaise sets in. New export orders led the fall — a sign that Trump's trade war has further damaged China's export economy. Additionally, Hong Kong slid into recession for the first time since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, advance estimates showed on Thursday. The economy has been weighed down by increasingly violent anti-government protests and the protracted U.S.-China trade war.”

  • “…Chinese officials reportedly cast doubt on any long-term trade deal with Trump — and his impulsive nature is part of the problem. "Chinese officials have warned they won't budge on the thorniest issues," Bloomberg reported. And they're also worried "he may back out" of a deal.”

  • “The U.S.-China trade dispute continues to take a big toll on American farmers. A report by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows that farm bankruptcies rose 24 percent in September to the highest since 2011. Farmers are increasingly dependent on trade aid and federal programs for income, with $33 billion of a projected $88 billion in income set to come from aid.”

  • “…Emerging market equites headed for a fourth week of gains on Friday as strong Chinese data and hopes for a trade deal lifted investor appetite for risker assets. In addition, a Federal Reserve rate cut prompted money flow into emerging markets, the biggest inflows in 37 weeks according to Bloomberg’s article “Flow to Stocks and Bonds Buoyed by Fed, Trade Talk.” Given the strong emerging market performance, souring trade talks and weaker data out of the United States might spark a correction in the risker assets.”

The Kiplinger Letter – November 1, 2019 

  • “…What will the nation look like in 2060?  For one thing, it will be much grayer, according to the latest U.S. population projections.  By 2034, the number of people over 65 will outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history.  The average age of an American today is 38 years old, by 2060, it jumps to 43…Overall population growth in coming decades will be driven by immigration as it outpaces the natural increase of the native-born population sometime around 2030…The aging nation is a troubling sign for Medicare and Social Security.   Having fewer working age adults per retiree will keep straining entitlement programs.

Get Acquainted meeting

We offer a complimentary 45 minute “Get Acquainted” meeting. 

Contact Us