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The Best of What They Said and I Read Week Ending 1/6/19

Short excerpts from articles I found interesting

I may not agree with the author and the following material is not intended as investment advice


Barron’s – January 4, 2019 – Dow Gains 370 Points as Recession Fears Recede – Ben Levisohn

  • “…The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370.76 points, or 1.6%, to 23,433.16 last week, while the S&P 500 gained 1.9% to 2531.94. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.3% to 6738.86.  It looked as if the market was headed for another week of losses on Thursday, when the Dow tumbled 660.02 points, or 2.8%...Then Friday arrived, and it looked as if all was right with the world again when the Dow surged 746.94 points, or 3.3%. President Donald Trump is reportedly sending a delegation to China for trade talks, while job creation in the U.S. in December was the strongest since February 2018. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he’s not dead set on raising interest rates this year. That was manna from heaven for a market that was busy pricing in a recession.”
  •  “…The stock market is not ‘end of bear market’ cheap,” Paulsen says. “But it is back to a level which offers some potential upside again, provided inflation and interest rates stop rising and the economy avoids a recession.”  That’s a lot of ifs. Essentially, the U.S. economy has to avoid growing too fast—sub-3% growth would be ideal, Paulsen says—so the Fed won’t need to continue raising interest rates, but doesn’t slow so much that it falls into recession…It’s a fine line to walk, but Paulsen, who turned bearish on stocks at the end of 2017, thinks the market may be able to pull it off. None of the recession indicators he looks at, including the yield curve and the index of leading indicators, point to a slowdown, which suggests it’s time to buy the weakness if and when the market retests the lows.”

MarketWatch – January 5, 2019 – Sunday is forecast to become the busiest day of the year in online dating – Catey Hill

  • “…Sunday is likely to be the busiest day of the year for online daters, according to multiple online dating sites. The reason? Not only are Sundays the most popular day for online dating, but this Sunday in particular is one when people begin to commit to their resolutions to find love in 2019.  That could be a boon to the dating-services marketplace, which has grown from $2.5 billion in 2015 to an estimated $3.2 billion by 2020, according to MarketResearch.com. But for users, all that traffic on dating sites leads to more competition, which means you’ll need to up your game when it comes to your online profile.
  • “So MarketWatch asked the operators of dating apps what people should include in their profiles to up their chances of getting the dates they seek. One prevailing answer: Talk about travel or local adventures (that is, if you’re interested in those things).”  

U.S. Global Investors Investor Alert – January 4, 2019 – Frank Holmes

·“…I think there are a number of signs that the rate hike we saw in December could be the last one this cycle. Just today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell commented that “we will be patient” with further rate hikes, which I believe is good news…Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said this week that the U.S. central bank should pause rate hikes while it monitors the impact of tighter financial conditions and decelerating growth abroad, writes Bloomberg. Could there even be an interest rate cut coming? Bloomberg writes that bond traders have now fully priced in a cut by April 2020.”

  • “…Apple shocked financial markets this week when it announced that it was lowering its revenue guidance for its first fiscal quarter ending December. The company had previously told investors to expect revenue between $89 billion and $93 billion, but it revised that estimate down to $84 billion. Apple CEO Tim Cook placed a significant portion of the blame for its slowdown on China's economic slowdown, which Cook said was caused in part by President Donald Trump's trade war. "We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States," Cook wrote.”
  • “…Job creation ended 2018 on a very strong note, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 312,000 in December. The labor force participation rate, meanwhile, rose to 63.1 percent. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting job growth of just 176,000.  U.S. wages jumped 3.2 percent from a year ago and 0.4 percent over the previous month. The year-over-year increase is tied with October for the best month since April 2009. The wage figures were above expectations of 3 percent on the year and 0.3 percent from November.”
  • “…Trump touted progress on trade talks with China: "Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China," President Donald Trump tweeted Saturday. "Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!"

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